COMEX Copper Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
26.03%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Week
26.26%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Month
27.00%
increased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7177 | 5.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0482 | 5.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9213 | 58.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0130 | 0.49 |
| γ2 | -0.0641 | -1.76* |
| γ3 | 0.0863 | 4.43*** |
| γ4 | -0.0305 | -1.66* |
| γ5 | -0.0151 | -0.95 |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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