V-Lab
COMEX Copper Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
23.20%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
23.60%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
24.87%
increased by 1.33%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7171 | 5.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0483 | 5.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9213 | 59.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0120 | 0.46 |
| γ2 | -0.0624 | -1.73* |
| γ3 | 0.0862 | 4.46*** |
| γ4 | -0.0328 | -1.81* |
| γ5 | -0.0124 | -0.80 |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
22 days
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