V-Lab
COMEX Copper Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
25.60%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
25.85%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Month
26.66%
increased by 0.56%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7174 | 5.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0481 | 5.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9215 | 59.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0126 | 0.48 |
| γ2 | -0.0634 | -1.75* |
| γ3 | 0.0862 | 4.44*** |
| γ4 | -0.0312 | -1.71* |
| γ5 | -0.0143 | -0.91 |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
22 days
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