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COMEX Copper GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

24.22%

decreased by 0.69%

1 Week

24.25%

decreased by 0.66%

1 Month

24.37%

decreased by 0.54%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of COMEX Copper GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.35 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~77 daysv = 6.35 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.6649
1.29
αARCH0.0432
6.39***
βGARCH0.9910
129.32***
νDF6.3454
1.12

0.991

Persistence

77d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.6649
1.29
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0432
6.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9910
129.32***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.3454
1.12

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

77 days