V-Lab
COMEX Copper GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
24.22%
1 Week
24.25%
1 Month
24.37%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.35 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.6649 | 1.29 |
| αARCH | 0.0432 | 6.39*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9910 | 129.32*** |
| νDF | 6.3454 | 1.12 |
0.991
Persistence77d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6649 | 1.29 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0432 | 6.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9910 | 129.32*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.3454 | 1.12 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
77 days
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