COMEX Copper GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
21.29%
1 Week
21.38%
1 Month
21.73%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 76 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.6777 | 1.31 |
| αscore | 0.0437 | 6.41*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9909 | 128.52*** |
| νDF | 6.5659 | 1.05 |
0.991
Persistence76d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.6777 | 1.31 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0437 | 6.41*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9909 | 128.52*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.5659 | 1.05 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
76 days
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