S&P GSCI Grains Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
15.81%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
15.94%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Month
16.43%
increased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 61 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 61 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 61-day half-lifev = 10.82 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.7414 | 3.73*** |
| αscore | 0.0555 | 8.99*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9886 | 334.11*** |
| νDF | 10.8161 | 0.99 |
0.989
Persistence61d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.7414 | 3.73*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0555 | 8.99*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9886 | 334.11*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.8161 | 0.99 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
61 days
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