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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Grains Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

15.81%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Week

15.94%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Month

16.43%

increased by 0.18%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Grains Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 61 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 61 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 61-day half-lifev = 10.82 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.7414
3.73***
αscore0.0555
8.99***
βpersistence0.9886
334.11***
νDF10.8161
0.99

0.989

Persistence

61d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.7414
3.73***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0555
8.99***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9886
334.11***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.8161
0.99

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

61 days