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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Grains Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

23.68%

increased by 0.38%

1 Week

23.62%

increased by 0.32%

1 Month

23.39%

increased by 0.09%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Grains Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7150
3.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0531
8.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9890
308.86***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.6922
1.08

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

62 days