V-Lab
S&P GSCI Grains Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
23.68%
increased by 0.38%
1 Week
23.62%
increased by 0.32%
1 Month
23.39%
increased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7150 | 3.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0531 | 8.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9890 | 308.86*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.6922 | 1.08 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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