V-Lab
ICE US Coffee Arabica GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
40.13%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Week
40.03%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Month
39.64%
decreased by 0.98%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 67 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 67 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 67-day half-lifev = 6.29 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.8097 | 1.98** |
| αARCH | 0.0268 | 6.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9897 | 159.47*** |
| νDF | 6.2938 | 0.93 |
0.990
Persistence67d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.8097 | 1.98** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0268 | 6.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9897 | 159.47*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.2938 | 0.93 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
67 days
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