V-Lab
ICE US Coffee Arabica GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
48.33%
increased by 1.14%
1 Week
48.10%
increased by 0.91%
1 Month
47.24%
increased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 04:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.8472 | 7.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0269 | 28.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9900 | 653.92*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.2883 | 3.79*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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