V-Lab
ICE US Coffee Arabica GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
46.92%
decreased by 0.83%
1 Week
46.71%
decreased by 1.04%
1 Month
45.94%
decreased by 1.81%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.8483 | 1.94* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0267 | 7.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9902 | 165.23*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.2983 | 0.95 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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