V-Lab
ICE US Coffee Arabica GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
47.82%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Week
47.60%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Month
46.77%
decreased by 2.02%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.28 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.8470 | 7.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0269 | 27.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9900 | 651.76*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.2791 | 3.79*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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