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ICE US Coffee Arabica GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

40.13%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Week

40.03%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Month

39.64%

decreased by 0.98%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:08 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Coffee Arabica GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 67 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 67 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 67-day half-lifev = 6.29 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst4.8097
1.98**
αARCH0.0268
6.94***
βGARCH0.9897
159.47***
νDF6.2938
0.93

0.990

Persistence

67d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.8097
1.98**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0268
6.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9897
159.47***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.2938
0.93

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

67 days