ICE US Coffee Arabica GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
47.25%
decreased by 0.98%
1 Week
47.04%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Month
46.22%
decreased by 2.01%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.26 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.8464 | 7.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0270 | 26.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9899 | 641.11*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.2561 | 3.78*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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