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V-Lab

ICE US Coffee Arabica GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

47.25%

decreased by 0.98%

1 Week

47.04%

decreased by 1.19%

1 Month

46.22%

decreased by 2.01%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Coffee Arabica GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.26 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.8464
7.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0270
26.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9899
641.11***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.2561
3.78***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

68 days