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ICE US Coffee Arabica GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

38.90%

decreased by 0.72%

1 Week

38.82%

decreased by 0.80%

1 Month

38.53%

decreased by 1.09%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Coffee Arabica GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.28 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 68-day half-lifev = 6.28 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst4.8095
1.96**
αARCH0.0266
6.93***
βGARCH0.9898
160.24***
νDF6.2804
0.93

0.990

Persistence

68d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.8095
1.96**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0266
6.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9898
160.24***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.2804
0.93

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

68 days