ICE US Coffee Arabica GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
37.54%
1 Week
37.49%
1 Month
37.32%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 10:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 4.8393 | 2.01** |
| αscore | 0.0257 | 7.28*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9907 | 177.64*** |
| νDF | 6.5746 | 0.89 |
0.991
Persistence74d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 4.8393 | 2.01** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0257 | 7.28*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9907 | 177.64*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.5746 | 0.89 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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