V-Lab
ICE US Coffee Arabica GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
41.98%
decreased by 1.12%
1 Week
41.25%
decreased by 1.85%
1 Month
39.08%
decreased by 4.02%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2318 | 4.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0803 | 3.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9027 | 58.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0684 | -2.43** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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