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V-Lab

ICE US Coffee Arabica GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

69.17%

decreased by 3.13%

1 Week

66.65%

decreased by 5.65%

1 Month

58.67%

decreased by 13.63%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of ICE US Coffee Arabica GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2247
16.00***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0806
12.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9041
237.37***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0683
-9.61***

Persistence:

0.951

Half-life:

14 days