ICE US Coffee Arabica GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
69.17%
decreased by 3.13%
1 Week
66.65%
decreased by 5.65%
1 Month
58.67%
decreased by 13.63%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2247 | 16.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0806 | 12.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9041 | 237.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0683 | -9.61*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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