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V-Lab

ICE US Coffee Arabica GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

41.98%

decreased by 1.12%

1 Week

41.25%

decreased by 1.85%

1 Month

39.08%

decreased by 4.02%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:19 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE US Coffee Arabica GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2318
4.07***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0803
3.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9027
58.77***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0684
-2.43**

Persistence:

0.949

Half-life:

13 days