Skip to main content
V-Lab

ICE US Coffee Arabica GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

44.97%

decreased by 1.57%

1 Week

44.01%

decreased by 2.53%

1 Month

41.12%

decreased by 5.42%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Coffee Arabica GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2304
16.12***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0803
12.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9030
232.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0682
-9.72***

Persistence:

0.949

Half-life:

13 days