V-Lab
ICE US Coffee Arabica GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
44.97%
decreased by 1.57%
1 Week
44.01%
decreased by 2.53%
1 Month
41.12%
decreased by 5.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2304 | 16.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0803 | 12.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9030 | 232.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0682 | -9.72*** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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