V-Lab
S&P GSCI Livestock Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
14.93%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
14.91%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Month
14.81%
decreased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 153% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 153% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0138 | 5.28*** |
| αARCH | 0.0246 | 3.50*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9392 | 155.61*** |
| γleverage | 0.0377 | 2.40** |
0.983
Persistence40d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0138 | 5.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0246 | 3.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9392 | 155.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0377 | 2.40** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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