S&P GSCI Livestock Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
16.63%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
16.55%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
16.27%
decreased by 0.45%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 155% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0138 | 21.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0245 | 13.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9392 | 621.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0380 | 9.68*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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