S&P GSCI Livestock Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
13.74%
increased by 0.06%
1 Week
13.75%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
13.80%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 156% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 156% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0138 | 5.28*** |
| αARCH | 0.0244 | 3.49*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9392 | 155.58*** |
| γleverage | 0.0380 | 2.43** |
0.983
Persistence40d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0138 | 5.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0244 | 3.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9392 | 155.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0380 | 2.43** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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