V-Lab
S&P GSCI Grains Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
25.68%
increased by 0.13%
1 Week
25.61%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
25.36%
decreased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0180 | 5.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0658 | 6.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9341 | 157.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0189 | -1.09 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
72 days
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