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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Grains Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

25.68%

increased by 0.13%

1 Week

25.61%

increased by 0.06%

1 Month

25.36%

decreased by 0.19%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Grains Spot Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0180
5.39***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0658
6.11***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9341
157.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0189
-1.09

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

72 days