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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Grains Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

23.54%

increased by 2.47%

1 Week

23.51%

increased by 2.44%

1 Month

23.39%

increased by 2.32%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Grains Spot Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 40% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0182
21.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0661
24.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9336
624.92***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0188
-4.29***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

72 days