S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
16.40%
increased by 0.46%
1 Week
16.37%
increased by 0.43%
1 Month
16.29%
increased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2002 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0125 | 17.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0133 | 8.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9449 | 616.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0572 | 15.26*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
Other S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Commodities