V-Lab
S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
16.72%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
16.69%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Month
16.57%
decreased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2002 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0125 | 4.28*** |
| αARCH | 0.0132 | 2.04** |
| βGARCH | 0.9451 | 154.94*** |
| γleverage | 0.0569 | 3.82*** |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0125 | 4.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0132 | 2.04** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9451 | 154.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0569 | 3.82*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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