S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
15.99%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
15.98%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Month
15.93%
decreased by 0.29%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2002 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0124 | 4.28*** |
| αARCH | 0.0131 | 2.03** |
| βGARCH | 0.9453 | 155.83*** |
| γleverage | 0.0571 | 3.85*** |
0.987
Persistence53d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0124 | 4.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0131 | 2.03** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9453 | 155.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0571 | 3.85*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
53 days
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