Chicago SRW Wheat GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
25.07%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
25.27%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
26.00%
increased by 0.58%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2000 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0546 | 4.11*** |
| αARCH | 0.0541 | 4.39*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9382 | 106.79*** |
| γleverage | -0.0117 | -0.62 |
0.986
Persistence50d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0546 | 4.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0541 | 4.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9382 | 106.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0117 | -0.62 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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