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V-Lab

Chicago SRW Wheat GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

28.85%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

28.94%

increased by 0.04%

1 Month

29.23%

increased by 0.33%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chicago SRW Wheat GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 51-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0539
4.09***
αARCH0.0536
4.38***
βGARCH0.9388
107.29***
γleverage-0.0115
-0.61

0.987

Persistence

51d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0539
4.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0536
4.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9388
107.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0115
-0.61

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

51 days