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V-Lab

Chicago SRW Wheat GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

33.43%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Week

33.39%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Month

33.24%

decreased by 0.53%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:12 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chicago SRW Wheat GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 52-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0532
4.07***
αARCH0.0534
4.38***
βGARCH0.9392
107.77***
γleverage-0.0116
-0.62

0.987

Persistence

52d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0532
4.07***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0534
4.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9392
107.77***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0116
-0.62

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

52 days