Chicago SRW Wheat GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
28.85%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
28.94%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
29.23%
increased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 51-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0539 | 4.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.0536 | 4.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9388 | 107.29*** |
| γleverage | -0.0115 | -0.61 |
0.987
Persistence51d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0539 | 4.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0536 | 4.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9388 | 107.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0115 | -0.61 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
51 days
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