Chicago SRW Wheat GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
37.39%
decreased by 1.01%
1 Week
37.26%
decreased by 1.14%
1 Month
36.75%
decreased by 1.65%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 26% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0547 | 16.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0544 | 17.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9376 | 424.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0111 | -2.30** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
51 days
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