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V-Lab

Chicago SRW Wheat GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

33.59%

decreased by 0.37%

1 Week

33.54%

decreased by 0.42%

1 Month

33.38%

decreased by 0.58%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chicago SRW Wheat GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 27% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0543
16.43***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0542
17.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9382
428.19***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0116
-2.44**

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

51 days