V-Lab
Chicago SRW Wheat GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
33.59%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Week
33.54%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Month
33.38%
decreased by 0.58%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 27% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0543 | 16.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0542 | 17.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9382 | 428.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0116 | -2.44** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
51 days
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