V-Lab
Chicago SRW Wheat GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
33.43%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
33.39%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Month
33.24%
decreased by 0.53%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:12 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 52-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0532 | 4.07*** |
| αARCH | 0.0534 | 4.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9392 | 107.77*** |
| γleverage | -0.0116 | -0.62 |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0532 | 4.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0534 | 4.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9392 | 107.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0116 | -0.62 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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