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Chicago SRW Wheat GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 3rd, 2026

1 Day

24.13%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Week

24.36%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Month

25.21%

increased by 0.67%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 06:18 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/02/2024

to

11/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chicago SRW Wheat GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2000 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0548
4.12***
αARCH0.0543
4.40***
βGARCH0.9379
106.62***
γleverage-0.0119
-0.63

0.986

Persistence

50d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0548
4.12***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0543
4.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9379
106.62***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0119
-0.63

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days