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V-Lab

Chicago SRW Wheat GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

38.17%

increased by 0.91%

1 Week

38.02%

increased by 0.76%

1 Month

37.46%

increased by 0.20%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:19 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chicago SRW Wheat GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0532
4.07***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0537
4.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9391
107.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0119
-0.63

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

52 days