V-Lab
Chicago SRW Wheat GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
38.17%
increased by 0.91%
1 Week
38.02%
increased by 0.76%
1 Month
37.46%
increased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0532 | 4.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0537 | 4.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9391 | 107.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0119 | -0.63 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
Other Chicago SRW Wheat Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Commodities