V-Lab
Chicago SRW Wheat GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
33.56%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
33.53%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Month
33.44%
decreased by 0.43%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 53 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 53 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0547 | 16.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0505 | 27.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9365 | 420.16*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
53 days
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