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V-Lab

Chicago SRW Wheat GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

29.93%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Week

30.00%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Month

30.25%

decreased by 0.20%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 05:18 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chicago SRW Wheat GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2000 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 54-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0539
4.17***
αARCH0.0498
6.78***
βGARCH0.9374
105.44***

0.987

Persistence

54d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0539
4.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0498
6.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9374
105.44***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

54 days