V-Lab
Chicago SRW Wheat GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
29.93%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
30.00%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Month
30.25%
decreased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 05:18 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2000 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 54-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0539 | 4.17*** |
| αARCH | 0.0498 | 6.78*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9374 | 105.44*** |
0.987
Persistence54d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0539 | 4.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0498 | 6.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9374 | 105.44*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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