V-Lab
S&P GSCI Agricultural Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
17.07%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
17.09%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Month
17.16%
decreased by 0.32%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0120 | 4.91*** |
| αARCH | 0.0568 | 10.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9339 | 156.11*** |
0.991
Persistence74d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0120 | 4.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0568 | 10.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9339 | 156.11*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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