CBOT Soybeans GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
15.95%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
16.24%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
17.27%
increased by 0.94%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 60-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0303 | 4.39*** |
| αARCH | 0.0669 | 8.11*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9216 | 117.91*** |
0.988
Persistence60d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0303 | 4.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0669 | 8.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9216 | 117.91*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
60 days
Other CBOT Soybeans Analyses
Other GARCH Analyses on Commodities