V-Lab
CBOT Soybeans GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
22.15%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
22.25%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
22.59%
increased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:12 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 67 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 67 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 67-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0285 | 4.02*** |
| αARCH | 0.0755 | 4.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9236 | 118.37*** |
| γleverage | -0.0189 | -0.87 |
0.990
Persistence67d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0285 | 4.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0755 | 4.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9236 | 118.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0189 | -0.87 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
67 days
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