Skip to main content
V-Lab

CBOT Soybeans GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

21.24%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Week

21.36%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Month

21.80%

increased by 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOT Soybeans GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 33% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0287
16.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0761
18.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9229
468.69***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0187
-3.43***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

67 days