CBOT Soybeans GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
18.62%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Week
18.81%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Month
19.49%
increased by 0.38%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 66-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0284 | 4.02*** |
| αARCH | 0.0753 | 4.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9237 | 118.34*** |
| γleverage | -0.0188 | -0.86 |
0.990
Persistence66d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0284 | 4.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0753 | 4.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9237 | 118.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0188 | -0.86 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
66 days
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