V-Lab
CBOT Soybeans GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
20.82%
increased by 0.53%
1 Week
20.95%
increased by 0.66%
1 Month
21.42%
increased by 1.13%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0285 | 4.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0756 | 4.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9234 | 118.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0189 | -0.87 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
66 days
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