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V-Lab

CBOT Soybeans MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

22.22%

increased by 2.02%

1 Week

22.28%

increased by 2.08%

1 Month

22.51%

increased by 2.31%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 04:09 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOT Soybeans MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 2000 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 18-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow41
αARCH0.0710
6.46***
βGARCH0.8988
50.86***
γleverage-0.0145
-0.87
λ₁tau intercept0.0380
1.32
λ₂forecast adj.0.0507
1.17
λ₃tau persistence0.9327
17.18***

0.963

Persistence

18d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0710
6.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8988
50.86***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0145
-0.87
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0380
1.32
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0507
1.17
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9327
17.18***

Persistence:

0.963

Half-life:

18 days