V-Lab
CBOT Soybeans MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
22.22%
increased by 2.02%
1 Week
22.28%
increased by 2.08%
1 Month
22.51%
increased by 2.31%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 04:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2000 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 18-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 41 | |
| αARCH | 0.0710 | 6.46*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8988 | 50.86*** |
| γleverage | -0.0145 | -0.87 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0380 | 1.32 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0507 | 1.17 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9327 | 17.18*** |
0.963
Persistence18d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0710 | 6.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8988 | 50.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0145 | -0.87 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0380 | 1.32 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0507 | 1.17 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9327 | 17.18*** |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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