V-Lab
CBOT Soybeans EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
18.59%
decreased by 1.01%
1 Week
18.79%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Month
19.54%
decreased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 04:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 14% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0139 | 15.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1529 | 36.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9890 | 1,140.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0100 | 2.86*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
63 days
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