CBOT Soybeans GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
15.05%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
15.29%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
16.15%
increased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2000 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 62-day half-lifev = 6.71 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.2111 | 1.59 |
| αscore | 0.0534 | 7.14*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9889 | 157.00*** |
| νDF | 6.7136 | 1.21 |
0.989
Persistence62d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.2111 | 1.59 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0534 | 7.14*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9889 | 157.00*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.7136 | 1.21 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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