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CBOT Soybeans GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

21.90%

increased by 2.12%

1 Week

21.93%

increased by 2.15%

1 Month

22.07%

increased by 2.29%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 04:08 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOT Soybeans GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 2000 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 63 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 63 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 63-day half-lifev = 6.50 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.2045
1.55
αARCH0.0521
7.09***
βGARCH0.9891
155.17***
νDF6.4987
1.25

0.989

Persistence

63d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.2045
1.55
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0521
7.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9891
155.17***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.4987
1.25

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

63 days