V-Lab
CBOT Soybeans GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
21.90%
increased by 2.12%
1 Week
21.93%
increased by 2.15%
1 Month
22.07%
increased by 2.29%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 04:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2000 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 63 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 63 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 63-day half-lifev = 6.50 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.2045 | 1.55 |
| αARCH | 0.0521 | 7.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9891 | 155.17*** |
| νDF | 6.4987 | 1.25 |
0.989
Persistence63d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2045 | 1.55 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0521 | 7.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9891 | 155.17*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.4987 | 1.25 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
63 days
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