V-Lab
CBOT Soybeans GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
18.51%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
18.64%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Month
19.09%
decreased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 63 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 63 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1971 | 6.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0522 | 28.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9891 | 619.34*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.4865 | 5.02*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
63 days
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