Skip to main content
V-Lab

CBOT Soybeans GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

18.51%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Week

18.64%

decreased by 0.46%

1 Month

19.09%

decreased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOT Soybeans GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 63 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 63 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1971
6.15***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0522
28.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9891
619.34***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.4865
5.02***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

63 days