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V-Lab

CBOT Soybeans GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 8th, 2026

1 Day

20.21%

increased by 0.27%

1 Week

20.29%

increased by 0.35%

1 Month

20.57%

increased by 0.63%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOT Soybeans GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 2000 to Jun 26, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 64 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 64 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.56 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1975
6.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0527
28.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9892
632.86***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.5559
5.00***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

64 days