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CBOT Soybeans GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026

1 Day

21.55%

decreased by 0.86%

1 Week

21.59%

decreased by 0.82%

1 Month

21.76%

decreased by 0.65%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOT Soybeans GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 15, 2000 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 63 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 63 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.52 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1994
6.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0525
28.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9891
624.03***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.5225
4.99***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

63 days