CBOT Soybeans GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 8th, 2026
1 Day
20.21%
increased by 0.27%
1 Week
20.29%
increased by 0.35%
1 Month
20.57%
increased by 0.63%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2000 to Jun 26, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 64 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 64 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.56 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1975 | 6.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0527 | 28.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9892 | 632.86*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.5559 | 5.00*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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