V-Lab
CBOT Soybeans Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
20.09%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
20.12%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Month
20.21%
decreased by 0.48%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 44 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9129 | 7.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0673 | 8.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9171 | 107.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0064 | -2.28** |
| γ2 | 0.0088 | 2.44** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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