CBOT Soybeans Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
19.87%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
19.90%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Month
20.02%
decreased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 44 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9117 | 7.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0677 | 8.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9167 | 106.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0065 | -2.31** |
| γ2 | 0.0089 | 2.47** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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