V-Lab
CBOT Soybeans Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
19.45%
increased by 0.47%
1 Week
19.50%
increased by 0.52%
1 Month
19.66%
increased by 0.68%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 44 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9121 | 7.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0669 | 8.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9174 | 107.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0064 | -2.29** |
| γ2 | 0.0087 | 2.45** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
Other CBOT Soybeans Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Commodities