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V-Lab
V-Lab

NYMEX Platinum Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

36.37%

decreased by 0.89%

1 Week

36.42%

decreased by 0.84%

1 Month

36.62%

decreased by 0.64%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:11 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NYMEX Platinum S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 29, 1997 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9308
3.62***
αARCH0.0523
3.69***
βGARCH0.9383
62.15***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0162
-1.21
γ20.0313
1.71*
γ3-0.0226
-2.91***

0.991

Persistence

74d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9308
3.62***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0523
3.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9383
62.15***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0162
-1.21
γ20.0313
1.71*
γ3-0.0226
-2.91***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

74 days