V-Lab
NYMEX Platinum Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
36.37%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Week
36.42%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Month
36.62%
decreased by 0.64%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 29, 1997 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9308 | 3.62*** |
| αARCH | 0.0523 | 3.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9383 | 62.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0162 | -1.21 |
| γ2 | 0.0313 | 1.71* |
| γ3 | -0.0226 | -2.91*** |
0.991
Persistence74d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9308 | 3.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0523 | 3.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9383 | 62.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0162 | -1.21 |
| γ2 | 0.0313 | 1.71* |
| γ3 | -0.0226 | -2.91*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
Other NYMEX Platinum Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Commodities