NYMEX Platinum Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
36.69%
decreased by 1.02%
1 Week
36.63%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Month
36.38%
decreased by 1.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 29, 1997 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 120 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2012 | 4.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0519 | 4.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9423 | 70.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0002 | 0.47 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
120 days
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