V-Lab
NYMEX Platinum Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
34.96%
decreased by 0.92%
1 Week
35.03%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Month
35.32%
decreased by 0.56%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 29, 1997 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9312 | 3.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0525 | 3.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9381 | 61.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0162 | -1.21 |
| γ2 | 0.0313 | 1.71* |
| γ3 | -0.0224 | -2.88*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
73 days
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