V-Lab
NYMEX Platinum Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
41.29%
decreased by 1.15%
1 Week
41.25%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Month
41.12%
decreased by 1.32%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 04:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 29, 1997 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 75 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~75 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9326 | 3.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.0525 | 3.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9382 | 62.20*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0164 | -1.22 |
| γ2 | 0.0316 | 1.72* |
| γ3 | -0.0228 | -2.93*** |
0.991
Persistence75d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9326 | 3.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0525 | 3.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9382 | 62.20*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0164 | -1.22 |
| γ2 | 0.0316 | 1.72* |
| γ3 | -0.0228 | -2.93*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
75 days
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