V-Lab
NYMEX Platinum Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
40.50%
decreased by 1.11%
1 Week
40.39%
decreased by 1.22%
1 Month
39.99%
decreased by 1.62%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 29, 1997 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 117 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1938 | 4.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0520 | 4.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9421 | 70.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0002 | 0.48 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
117 days
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