COMEX Gold Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
23.84%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
23.70%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Month
23.19%
decreased by 0.76%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 57 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0883 | 7.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0434 | 4.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9445 | 78.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0003 | 0.73 |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
57 days
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