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V-Lab

COMEX Gold Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

23.84%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Week

23.70%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Month

23.19%

decreased by 0.76%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of COMEX Gold S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 57 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0883
7.57***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0434
4.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9445
78.69***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0003
0.73

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

57 days