Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Henry Hub Natural Gas Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

30.37%

decreased by 0.95%

1 Week

31.06%

decreased by 0.26%

1 Month

33.54%

increased by 2.22%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:09 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Henry Hub Natural Gas S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~88 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.5895
5.03***
αARCH0.0840
10.57***
βGARCH0.9081
120.82***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0011
2.19**

0.992

Persistence

88d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5895
5.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0840
10.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9081
120.82***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0011
2.19**

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

88 days