Henry Hub Natural Gas Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
53.03%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
54.91%
increased by 1.64%
1 Month
61.15%
increased by 7.88%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 40 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4255 | 6.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0841 | 8.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8987 | 91.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0099 | 0.67 |
| γ2 | -0.0221 | -0.91 |
| γ3 | 0.0435 | 2.50** |
| γ4 | -0.0503 | -4.33*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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