V-Lab
Henry Hub Natural Gas Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
30.37%
decreased by 0.95%
1 Week
31.06%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Month
33.54%
increased by 2.22%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~88 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5895 | 5.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.0840 | 10.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9081 | 120.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0011 | 2.19** |
0.992
Persistence88d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5895 | 5.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0840 | 10.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9081 | 120.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0011 | 2.19** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
88 days
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