V-Lab
COMEX Silver Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
36.47%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
36.53%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Month
36.74%
decreased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:12 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 44 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5794 | 4.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.0500 | 5.10*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9343 | 79.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0005 | -0.03 |
| γ2 | -0.0266 | -1.06 |
| γ3 | 0.0528 | 3.49*** |
| γ4 | -0.0361 | -3.37*** |
0.984
Persistence44d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5794 | 4.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0500 | 5.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9343 | 79.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0005 | -0.03 |
| γ2 | -0.0266 | -1.06 |
| γ3 | 0.0528 | 3.49*** |
| γ4 | -0.0361 | -3.37*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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