V-Lab
COMEX Silver Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
40.53%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Week
40.47%
decreased by 0.99%
1 Month
40.22%
decreased by 1.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 44 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5814 | 4.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0502 | 5.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9342 | 79.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0001 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -0.0275 | -1.08 |
| γ3 | 0.0535 | 3.48*** |
| γ4 | -0.0363 | -3.32*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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