COMEX Silver Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
46.49%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Week
46.26%
decreased by 0.92%
1 Month
45.45%
decreased by 1.73%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 45 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5840 | 4.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0500 | 5.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9348 | 80.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.01 |
| γ2 | -0.0279 | -1.08 |
| γ3 | 0.0539 | 3.45*** |
| γ4 | -0.0366 | -3.30*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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