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V-Lab

COMEX Silver MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

35.33%

increased by 1.42%

1 Week

35.91%

increased by 2.00%

1 Month

36.86%

increased by 2.95%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of COMEX Silver MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow51
αARCH0.0833
3.88***
βGARCH0.8208
22.74***
γleverage-0.0189
-0.81
λ₁tau intercept0.0588
1.97**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0826
2.52**
λ₃tau persistence0.9043
23.49***

0.895

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0833
3.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8208
22.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0189
-0.81
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0588
1.97**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0826
2.52**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9043
23.49***

Persistence:

0.895

Half-life:

6 days