V-Lab
COMEX Silver MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
42.06%
increased by 1.45%
1 Week
42.34%
increased by 1.73%
1 Month
42.07%
increased by 1.46%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0836 | 3.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8189 | 22.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0181 | -0.76 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0574 | 1.95* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0822 | 2.52** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9052 | 23.74*** |
Persistence:
0.893
Half-life:
6 days
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