COMEX Silver MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
35.33%
increased by 1.42%
1 Week
35.91%
increased by 2.00%
1 Month
36.86%
increased by 2.95%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 51 | |
| αARCH | 0.0833 | 3.88*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8208 | 22.74*** |
| γleverage | -0.0189 | -0.81 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0588 | 1.97** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0826 | 2.52** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9043 | 23.49*** |
0.895
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0833 | 3.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8208 | 22.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0189 | -0.81 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0588 | 1.97** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0826 | 2.52** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9043 | 23.49*** |
Persistence:
0.895
Half-life:
6 days
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