V-Lab
COMEX Silver Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
39.94%
decreased by 0.94%
1 Week
40.18%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Month
41.02%
increased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 46 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5449 | 5.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0507 | 5.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9343 | 80.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0156 | -3.79*** |
| γ2 | 0.0286 | 3.86*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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