V-Lab
COMEX Silver AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
41.44%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
41.40%
decreased by 0.79%
1 Month
41.21%
decreased by 0.98%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 04:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 148 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0169 | 7.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0487 | 22.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9466 | 458.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3818 | -9.34*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
148 days
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