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V-Lab

COMEX Silver AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

41.44%

decreased by 0.75%

1 Week

41.40%

decreased by 0.79%

1 Month

41.21%

decreased by 0.98%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 04:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of COMEX Silver AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 148 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0169
7.87***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0487
22.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9466
458.39***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3818
-9.34***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

148 days