V-Lab
COMEX Silver GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
36.84%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
36.88%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Month
37.05%
decreased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 245 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~245 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0215 | 3.53*** |
| αARCH | 0.0625 | 4.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9487 | 120.25*** |
| γleverage | -0.0280 | -1.45 |
0.997
Persistence245d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0215 | 3.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0625 | 4.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9487 | 120.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0280 | -1.45 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
245 days
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