V-Lab
COMEX Silver GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
39.21%
increased by 0.51%
1 Week
39.24%
increased by 0.54%
1 Month
39.35%
increased by 0.65%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 248 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0214 | 3.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0625 | 4.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9487 | 120.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0279 | -1.44 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
248 days
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