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V-Lab

COMEX Silver GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

46.68%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Week

46.67%

decreased by 0.74%

1 Month

46.65%

decreased by 0.76%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of COMEX Silver GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 273 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 80% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0208
13.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0622
16.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9491
484.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0277
-5.74***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

273 days