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V-Lab

COMEX Silver GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

44.72%

decreased by 0.79%

1 Week

44.72%

decreased by 0.79%

1 Month

44.73%

decreased by 0.78%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of COMEX Silver GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 268 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 81% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0209
13.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0623
16.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9490
483.71***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0278
-5.77***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

268 days