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V-Lab

COMEX Silver GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

36.84%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Week

36.88%

decreased by 0.26%

1 Month

37.05%

decreased by 0.09%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:11 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of COMEX Silver GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 245 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~245 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0215
3.53***
αARCH0.0625
4.22***
βGARCH0.9487
120.25***
γleverage-0.0280
-1.45

0.997

Persistence

245d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0215
3.53***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0625
4.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9487
120.25***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0280
-1.45

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

245 days