COMEX Silver GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
46.68%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Week
46.67%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Month
46.65%
decreased by 0.76%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 273 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 80% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0208 | 13.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0622 | 16.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9491 | 484.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0277 | -5.74*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
273 days
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