COMEX Silver GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
44.72%
decreased by 0.79%
1 Week
44.72%
decreased by 0.79%
1 Month
44.73%
decreased by 0.78%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 268 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 81% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0209 | 13.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0623 | 16.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9490 | 483.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0278 | -5.77*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
268 days
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