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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

31.73%

decreased by 0.90%

1 Week

32.33%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Month

34.53%

increased by 1.90%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 1994 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1156
5.06***
αARCH0.0915
6.68***
βGARCH0.9175
139.24***
γleverage-0.0366
-1.86*

0.991

Persistence

74d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1156
5.06***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0915
6.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9175
139.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0366
-1.86*

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

74 days