S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
47.48%
increased by 4.34%
1 Week
47.65%
increased by 4.51%
1 Month
48.28%
increased by 5.14%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1994 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~72 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1177 | 5.10*** |
| αARCH | 0.0918 | 6.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9173 | 138.86*** |
| γleverage | -0.0373 | -1.89* |
0.990
Persistence72d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1177 | 5.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0918 | 6.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9173 | 138.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0373 | -1.89* |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
72 days
Other S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Commodities