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S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

47.48%

increased by 4.34%

1 Week

47.65%

increased by 4.51%

1 Month

48.28%

increased by 5.14%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 1994 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~72 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1177
5.10***
αARCH0.0918
6.70***
βGARCH0.9173
138.86***
γleverage-0.0373
-1.89*

0.990

Persistence

72d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1177
5.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0918
6.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9173
138.86***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0373
-1.89*

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

72 days