V-Lab
S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
31.73%
decreased by 0.90%
1 Week
32.33%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Month
34.53%
increased by 1.90%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1994 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1156 | 5.06*** |
| αARCH | 0.0915 | 6.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9175 | 139.24*** |
| γleverage | -0.0366 | -1.86* |
0.991
Persistence74d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1156 | 5.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0915 | 6.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9175 | 139.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0366 | -1.86* |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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