S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
39.44%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Week
39.81%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Month
41.16%
increased by 1.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1994 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~72 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1175 | 5.10*** |
| αARCH | 0.0917 | 6.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9174 | 139.06*** |
| γleverage | -0.0372 | -1.89* |
0.990
Persistence72d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1175 | 5.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0917 | 6.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9174 | 139.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0372 | -1.89* |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
72 days
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