V-Lab
S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
34.06%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Week
34.59%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Month
36.52%
increased by 1.59%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1994 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1166 | 5.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0915 | 6.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9174 | 139.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0368 | -1.87* |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
73 days
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