Skip to main content
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

38.01%

decreased by 0.91%

1 Week

38.42%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Month

39.93%

increased by 1.01%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 1994 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 67% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1173
20.38***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0918
26.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9173
554.57***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0369
-7.49***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

73 days