S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
39.17%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Week
39.55%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
40.95%
increased by 1.46%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1994 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 67% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1175 | 20.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0917 | 26.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9172 | 554.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0367 | -7.44*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
73 days
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