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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

39.17%

decreased by 0.32%

1 Week

39.55%

increased by 0.06%

1 Month

40.95%

increased by 1.46%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 1994 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 67% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1175
20.43***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0917
26.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9172
554.19***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0367
-7.44***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

73 days