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S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

38.50%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Week

40.00%

increased by 1.27%

1 Month

41.52%

increased by 2.79%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 1994 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0865
4.63***
βGARCH0.7263
13.06***
γleverage-0.0802
-3.86***
λ₁tau intercept0.5834
3.20***
λ₂forecast adj.0.3031
3.66***
λ₃tau persistence0.6474
6.74***

0.773

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0865
4.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7263
13.06***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0802
-3.86***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.5834
3.20***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3031
3.66***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6474
6.74***

Persistence:

0.773

Half-life:

3 days