Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

30.82%

decreased by 0.87%

1 Week

31.10%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Month

33.52%

increased by 1.83%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 1994 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0853
4.57***
βGARCH0.7279
12.98***
γleverage-0.0784
-3.77***
λ₁tau intercept0.5679
3.21***
λ₂forecast adj.0.3018
3.68***
λ₃tau persistence0.6502
6.87***

0.774

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0853
4.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7279
12.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0784
-3.77***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.5679
3.21***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3018
3.68***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6502
6.87***

Persistence:

0.774

Half-life:

3 days