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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

39.62%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Week

40.61%

increased by 0.49%

1 Month

43.06%

increased by 2.94%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 1994 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0859
9.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7269
16.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0793
-7.55***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.5819
0.44
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3042
0.47
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6469
0.86

Persistence:

0.773

Half-life:

3 days