S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
46.74%
1 Week
46.32%
1 Month
46.78%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1994 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0865 | 4.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7255 | 12.98*** |
| γleverage | -0.0800 | -3.84*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.5829 | 3.20*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.3027 | 3.66*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.6479 | 6.76*** |
0.772
Persistence3d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0865 | 4.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7255 | 12.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0800 | -3.84*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.5829 | 3.20*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3027 | 3.66*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6479 | 6.76*** |
Persistence:
0.772
Half-life:
3 days
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