S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
39.38%
1 Week
40.84%
1 Month
43.96%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1994 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0858 | 9.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7267 | 16.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0789 | -7.51*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.5842 | 0.44 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3051 | 0.46 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6460 | 0.85 |
Persistence:
0.773
Half-life:
3 days
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