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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

39.38%

increased by 0.19%

1 Week

40.84%

increased by 1.65%

1 Month

43.96%

increased by 4.77%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 1994 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0858
9.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7267
16.82***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0789
-7.51***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.5842
0.44
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3051
0.46
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6460
0.85

Persistence:

0.773

Half-life:

3 days