S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026
1 Day
44.40%
increased by 1.26%
1 Week
44.37%
increased by 1.23%
1 Month
44.31%
increased by 1.17%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 12:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 26, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 79% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0579 | 20.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8930 | 309.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0458 | 12.86*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0283 | 11.09*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0407 | 11.66*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9542 | 238.72*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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