V-Lab
S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026
1 Day
61.65%
decreased by 2.73%
1 Week
61.14%
decreased by 3.24%
1 Month
59.36%
decreased by 5.02%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 79% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0574 | 20.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8939 | 311.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0456 | 12.96*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0280 | 11.14*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0411 | 11.73*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9539 | 238.72*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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