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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026

1 Day

44.40%

increased by 1.26%

1 Week

44.37%

increased by 1.23%

1 Month

44.31%

increased by 1.17%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 12:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 26, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 79% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0579
20.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8930
309.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0458
12.86***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0283
11.09***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0407
11.66***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9542
238.72***

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

26 days