V-Lab
S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
43.18%
decreased by 1.83%
1 Week
43.35%
decreased by 1.66%
1 Month
43.51%
decreased by 1.50%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 78% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0581 | 20.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8933 | 311.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0451 | 12.80*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0282 | 11.17*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0410 | 11.77*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9539 | 239.62*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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