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V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

42.88%

increased by 1.80%

1 Week

42.84%

increased by 1.76%

1 Month

42.85%

increased by 1.77%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:57 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 77% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 77% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow126
αARCH0.0580
4.67***
βGARCH0.8935
83.99***
γleverage0.0448
3.05***
λ₁tau intercept0.0282
0.91
λ₂forecast adj.0.0413
1.30
λ₃tau persistence0.9537
26.16***

0.974

Persistence

26d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0580
4.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8935
83.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0448
3.05***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0282
0.91
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0413
1.30
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9537
26.16***

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

26 days