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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026

1 Day

61.65%

decreased by 2.73%

1 Week

61.14%

decreased by 3.24%

1 Month

59.36%

decreased by 5.02%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 79% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0574
20.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8939
311.80***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0456
12.96***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0280
11.14***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0411
11.73***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9539
238.72***

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

26 days