V-Lab
S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
39.94%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
40.02%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Month
40.20%
decreased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:17 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 77% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 77% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.0580 | 4.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8936 | 84.06*** |
| γleverage | 0.0447 | 3.04*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0283 | 0.91 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0412 | 1.30 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9537 | 26.14*** |
0.974
Persistence26d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0580 | 4.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8936 | 84.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0447 | 3.04*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0283 | 0.91 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0412 | 1.30 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9537 | 26.14*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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