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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

50.71%

decreased by 2.08%

1 Week

50.55%

decreased by 2.24%

1 Month

49.93%

decreased by 2.86%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 78% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0580
20.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8936
312.46***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0450
12.81***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0281
11.19***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0412
11.83***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9538
239.76***

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

26 days