V-Lab
S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
50.71%
decreased by 2.08%
1 Week
50.55%
decreased by 2.24%
1 Month
49.93%
decreased by 2.86%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 78% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0580 | 20.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8936 | 312.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0450 | 12.81*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0281 | 11.19*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0412 | 11.83*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9538 | 239.76*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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