V-Lab
S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
55.52%
decreased by 3.01%
1 Week
55.19%
decreased by 3.34%
1 Month
53.96%
decreased by 4.57%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.43) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0729 | 23.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0974 | 46.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8891 | 490.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4319 | 15.73*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
51 days
Other S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index Analyses
Other AGARCH Analyses on Commodities