Skip to main content
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

55.52%

decreased by 3.01%

1 Week

55.19%

decreased by 3.34%

1 Month

53.96%

decreased by 4.57%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.43) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0729
23.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0974
46.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8891
490.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4319
15.73***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

51 days