S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 16th, 2026
1 Day
44.42%
1 Week
44.37%
1 Month
44.18%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 12:42 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 13, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 110 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with ν = 7.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 6.4561 | 1.61 |
| αscore | 0.0647 | 13.37*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9937 | 247.86*** |
| νDF | 7.5015 | 1.93* |
0.994
Persistence110d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 6.4561 | 1.61 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0647 | 13.37*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9937 | 247.86*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.5015 | 1.93* |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
110 days
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