V-Lab
S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026
1 Day
63.82%
decreased by 2.89%
1 Week
63.58%
decreased by 3.13%
1 Month
62.67%
decreased by 4.04%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.23 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.4165 | 6.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0631 | 53.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9939 | 991.91*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.2253 | 8.09*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
113 days
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