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S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

46.59%

increased by 1.36%

1 Week

46.52%

increased by 1.29%

1 Month

46.24%

increased by 1.01%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:56 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~113 daysv = 7.24 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst6.4019
1.56
αARCH0.0632
13.33***
βGARCH0.9939
246.92***
νDF7.2380
2.01**

0.994

Persistence

113d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.4019
1.56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0632
13.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9939
246.92***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.2380
2.01**

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

113 days