V-Lab
S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
46.59%
1 Week
46.52%
1 Month
46.24%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:56 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 6.4019 | 1.56 |
| αARCH | 0.0632 | 13.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9939 | 246.92*** |
| νDF | 7.2380 | 2.01** |
0.994
Persistence113d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.4019 | 1.56 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0632 | 13.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9939 | 246.92*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.2380 | 2.01** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
113 days
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