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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

46.91%

decreased by 2.28%

1 Week

46.83%

decreased by 2.36%

1 Month

46.54%

decreased by 2.65%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 112 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.23 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.3946
6.23***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0633
53.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9938
983.02***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.2321
8.07***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

112 days