S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026
1 Day
49.06%
increased by 2.67%
1 Week
48.96%
increased by 2.57%
1 Month
48.58%
increased by 2.19%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 12:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 26, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 112 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.4004 | 6.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0634 | 53.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9938 | 987.91*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.2404 | 8.06*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
112 days
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