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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026

1 Day

49.06%

increased by 2.67%

1 Week

48.96%

increased by 2.57%

1 Month

48.58%

increased by 2.19%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 12:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 26, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 112 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.4004
6.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0634
53.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9938
987.91***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.2404
8.06***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

112 days