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S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

37.49%

increased by 3.01%

1 Week

37.52%

increased by 3.04%

1 Month

37.65%

increased by 3.17%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 107 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.56 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~107 daysv = 7.56 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run6.3808
1.64
αscore0.0649
13.29***
βpersistence0.9936
246.24***
νDF7.5596
1.90*

0.994

Persistence

107d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

6.3808
1.64
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0649
13.29***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9936
246.24***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.5596
1.90*

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

107 days