V-Lab
S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
42.91%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Week
42.88%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Month
42.75%
decreased by 0.78%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:16 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 112 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.26 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~112 daysv = 7.26 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 6.3782 | 1.56 |
| αARCH | 0.0631 | 13.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9938 | 246.61*** |
| νDF | 7.2587 | 2.00** |
0.994
Persistence112d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.3782 | 1.56 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0631 | 13.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9938 | 246.61*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.2587 | 2.00** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
112 days
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