S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
37.49%
1 Week
37.52%
1 Month
37.65%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 107 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.56 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 6.3808 | 1.64 |
| αscore | 0.0649 | 13.29*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9936 | 246.24*** |
| νDF | 7.5596 | 1.90* |
0.994
Persistence107d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 6.3808 | 1.64 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0649 | 13.29*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9936 | 246.24*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.5596 | 1.90* |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
107 days
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