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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

42.91%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Week

42.88%

decreased by 0.65%

1 Month

42.75%

decreased by 0.78%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:16 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 112 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.26 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~112 daysv = 7.26 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst6.3782
1.56
αARCH0.0631
13.33***
βGARCH0.9938
246.61***
νDF7.2587
2.00**

0.994

Persistence

112d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.3782
1.56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0631
13.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9938
246.61***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.2587
2.00**

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

112 days