ICE US Orange Juice GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
67.22%
1 Week
66.99%
1 Month
66.10%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2001 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 144 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.1781 | 1.51 |
| αARCH | 0.0342 | 8.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9952 | 281.45*** |
| νDF | 5.4128 | 2.72*** |
0.995
Persistence144d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.1781 | 1.51 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0342 | 8.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9952 | 281.45*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.4128 | 2.72*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
144 days
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