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V-Lab

ICE US Orange Juice AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

69.18%

decreased by 1.60%

1 Week

68.88%

decreased by 1.90%

1 Month

67.72%

decreased by 3.06%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 01:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE US Orange Juice AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2001 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 109 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0369
13.23***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0404
32.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9533
680.92***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1839
2.96***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

109 days