V-Lab
ICE US Orange Juice AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
69.18%
decreased by 1.60%
1 Week
68.88%
decreased by 1.90%
1 Month
67.72%
decreased by 3.06%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 01:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2001 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 109 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0369 | 13.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0404 | 32.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9533 | 680.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1839 | 2.96*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
109 days
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