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V-Lab

ICE US Orange Juice GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

68.45%

decreased by 0.88%

1 Week

68.35%

decreased by 0.98%

1 Month

67.94%

decreased by 1.39%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Orange Juice GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2001 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 300 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~300 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0153
2.39**
αARCH0.0242
3.61***
βGARCH0.9730
206.32***
γleverage0.0011
0.10

0.998

Persistence

300d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0153
2.39**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0242
3.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9730
206.32***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0011
0.10

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

300 days