ICE US Orange Juice GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
81.07%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
80.93%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Month
80.41%
decreased by 1.23%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 01:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2001 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 310 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0155 | 9.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0255 | 14.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9723 | 804.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0000 | -0.01 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
310 days
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