ICE US Orange Juice GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
67.99%
increased by 4.89%
1 Week
67.89%
increased by 4.79%
1 Month
67.51%
increased by 4.41%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2001 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 306 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~306 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0151 | 2.38** |
| αARCH | 0.0239 | 3.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9732 | 208.93*** |
| γleverage | 0.0013 | 0.12 |
0.998
Persistence306d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0151 | 2.38** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0239 | 3.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9732 | 208.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0013 | 0.12 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
306 days
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