V-Lab
ICE US Orange Juice GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
74.20%
decreased by 0.98%
1 Week
74.09%
decreased by 1.09%
1 Month
73.64%
decreased by 1.54%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2001 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 314 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~314 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0150 | 2.34** |
| αARCH | 0.0243 | 3.61*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9731 | 207.12*** |
| γleverage | 0.0009 | 0.08 |
0.998
Persistence314d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0150 | 2.34** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0243 | 3.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9731 | 207.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0009 | 0.08 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
314 days
Other ICE US Orange Juice Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Commodities