V-Lab
ICE US Orange Juice GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
73.55%
decreased by 0.94%
1 Week
73.43%
decreased by 1.06%
1 Month
72.97%
decreased by 1.52%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 01:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2001 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 298 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0156 | 9.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0251 | 14.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9725 | 807.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0002 | 0.06 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
298 days
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