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V-Lab

ICE US Orange Juice GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

81.07%

decreased by 0.57%

1 Week

80.93%

decreased by 0.71%

1 Month

80.41%

decreased by 1.23%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 01:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of ICE US Orange Juice GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2001 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 310 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0155
9.38***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0255
14.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9723
804.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0000
-0.01

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

310 days