ICE US Orange Juice GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
68.45%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Week
68.35%
decreased by 0.98%
1 Month
67.94%
decreased by 1.39%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2001 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 300 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~300 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0153 | 2.39** |
| αARCH | 0.0242 | 3.61*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9730 | 206.32*** |
| γleverage | 0.0011 | 0.10 |
0.998
Persistence300d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0153 | 2.39** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0242 | 3.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9730 | 206.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0011 | 0.10 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
300 days
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