V-Lab
ICE US Orange Juice GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
72.83%
decreased by 0.99%
1 Week
72.72%
decreased by 1.10%
1 Month
72.25%
decreased by 1.57%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 01:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2001 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 292 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0158 | 9.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0251 | 14.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9725 | 805.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0003 | 0.09 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
292 days
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