V-Lab
ICE US Orange Juice GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
65.30%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Week
65.19%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Month
64.77%
decreased by 0.90%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2001 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 266 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0167 | 2.49** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0253 | 3.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9720 | 198.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0002 | 0.02 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
266 days
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