V-Lab
ICE US Orange Juice EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
67.86%
decreased by 1.75%
1 Week
67.61%
decreased by 2.00%
1 Month
66.66%
decreased by 2.95%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 01:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2001 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 122 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0127 | 15.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0682 | 23.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9943 | 2,138.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0004 | 0.15 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
122 days
Other ICE US Orange Juice Analyses
Other EGARCH Analyses on Commodities