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V-Lab

ICE US Orange Juice EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

67.86%

decreased by 1.75%

1 Week

67.61%

decreased by 2.00%

1 Month

66.66%

decreased by 2.95%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 01:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE US Orange Juice EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2001 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 122 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0127
15.35***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0682
23.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9943
2,138.37***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0004
0.15

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

122 days