V-Lab
S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
33.60%
decreased by 2.04%
1 Week
33.75%
decreased by 1.89%
1 Month
34.29%
decreased by 1.35%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 47-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0265 | 5.10*** |
| αARCH | 0.1581 | 7.49*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9853 | 348.03*** |
| γleverage | -0.0279 | -1.70* |
0.985
Persistence47d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0265 | 5.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1581 | 7.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9853 | 348.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0279 | -1.70* |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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