S&P GSCI Precious Metals Spot Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
19.88%
increased by 0.43%
1 Week
19.93%
increased by 0.48%
1 Month
20.12%
increased by 0.67%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 92 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~92 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0059 | 1.32 |
| αARCH | 0.0919 | 4.01*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9925 | 333.04*** |
| γleverage | 0.0279 | 1.50 |
0.992
Persistence92d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0059 | 1.32 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0919 | 4.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9925 | 333.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0279 | 1.50 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
92 days
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