S&P GSCI Spot Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
24.57%
decreased by 1.11%
1 Week
24.60%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Month
24.70%
decreased by 0.98%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 13% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0104 | 17.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1534 | 32.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9894 | 1,679.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0094 | -2.38** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
65 days
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