V-Lab
S&P GSCI Spot Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
20.87%
decreased by 0.96%
1 Week
20.96%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Month
21.32%
decreased by 0.51%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 65 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 65 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 65-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0104 | 4.37*** |
| αARCH | 0.1531 | 8.01*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9893 | 419.56*** |
| γleverage | -0.0095 | -0.60 |
0.989
Persistence65d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0104 | 4.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1531 | 8.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9893 | 419.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0095 | -0.60 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
65 days
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