S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
20.13%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Week
20.17%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Month
20.30%
decreased by 0.47%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 17, 1995 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 52-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0081 | 3.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.0984 | 7.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9866 | 293.99*** |
| γleverage | 0.0114 | 1.18 |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0081 | 3.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0984 | 7.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9866 | 293.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0114 | 1.18 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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