Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

20.13%

decreased by 0.64%

1 Week

20.17%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Month

20.30%

decreased by 0.47%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:51 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 17, 1995 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 52-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0081
3.60***
αARCH0.0984
7.59***
βGARCH0.9866
293.99***
γleverage0.0114
1.18

0.987

Persistence

52d

Half-life
σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0081
3.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0984
7.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9866
293.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0114
1.18

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

52 days