V-Lab
S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
13.26%
increased by 0.71%
1 Week
13.31%
increased by 0.76%
1 Month
13.51%
increased by 0.96%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:54 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 110 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~110 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0016 | 1.31 |
| αARCH | 0.1185 | 9.50*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9937 | 583.50*** |
| γleverage | -0.0049 | -0.46 |
0.994
Persistence110d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0016 | 1.31 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1185 | 9.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9937 | 583.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0049 | -0.46 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
110 days
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