V-Lab
S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
13.42%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
13.43%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Month
13.44%
decreased by 0.40%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 163 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.59 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7698 | 6.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0462 | 40.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9957 | 1,575.55*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.5940 | 5.67*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
163 days
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