S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
8.70%
1 Week
8.77%
1 Month
9.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 153 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.7841 | 1.79* |
| αscore | 0.0494 | 10.12*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9955 | 395.66*** |
| νDF | 9.5007 | 1.28 |
0.995
Persistence153d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.7841 | 1.79* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0494 | 10.12*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9955 | 395.66*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.5007 | 1.28 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
153 days
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