S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
10.53%
1 Week
10.56%
1 Month
10.69%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 160 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7630 | 1.66* |
| αARCH | 0.0463 | 10.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9957 | 389.55*** |
| νDF | 8.6541 | 1.41 |
0.996
Persistence160d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7630 | 1.66* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0463 | 10.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9957 | 389.55*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.6541 | 1.41 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
160 days
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