V-Lab
S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
11.59%
1 Week
11.62%
1 Month
11.70%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 161 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7648 | 1.66* |
| αARCH | 0.0462 | 10.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9957 | 391.86*** |
| νDF | 8.6495 | 1.41 |
0.996
Persistence161d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7648 | 1.66* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0462 | 10.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9957 | 391.86*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.6495 | 1.41 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
161 days
Other S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Commodities