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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

8.70%

increased by 0.09%

1 Week

8.77%

increased by 0.16%

1 Month

9.01%

increased by 0.40%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 153 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~153 daysv = 9.50 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.7841
1.79*
αscore0.0494
10.12***
βpersistence0.9955
395.66***
νDF9.5007
1.28

0.995

Persistence

153d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.7841
1.79*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0494
10.12***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9955
395.66***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.5007
1.28

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

153 days