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V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

10.53%

increased by 0.06%

1 Week

10.56%

increased by 0.09%

1 Month

10.69%

increased by 0.22%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 160 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~160 daysv = 8.65 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7630
1.66*
αARCH0.0463
10.15***
βGARCH0.9957
389.55***
νDF8.6541
1.41

0.996

Persistence

160d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7630
1.66*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0463
10.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9957
389.55***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.6541
1.41

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

160 days