V-Lab
S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
12.86%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
12.87%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Month
12.90%
decreased by 0.38%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 162 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7674 | 1.65* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0462 | 10.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9957 | 393.73*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.6320 | 1.41 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
162 days
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