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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Sugar Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

30.27%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Week

30.28%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Month

30.30%

decreased by 0.50%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:07 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Sugar Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 178 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~178 daysv = 8.84 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run3.8690
2.03**
αscore0.0293
9.38***
βpersistence0.9961
462.23***
νDF8.8444
1.17

0.996

Persistence

178d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

3.8690
2.03**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0293
9.38***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9961
462.23***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.8444
1.17

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

178 days