V-Lab
S&P GSCI Sugar Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
32.95%
increased by 1.38%
1 Week
32.98%
increased by 1.41%
1 Month
33.12%
increased by 1.55%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~93 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0118 | 4.57*** |
| αARCH | 0.0693 | 7.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9926 | 521.06*** |
| γleverage | 0.0008 | 0.10 |
0.993
Persistence93d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0118 | 4.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0693 | 7.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9926 | 521.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0008 | 0.10 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
93 days
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