S&P GSCI All Crude Spot Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
46.01%
decreased by 2.78%
1 Week
45.88%
decreased by 2.91%
1 Month
45.42%
decreased by 3.37%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 49% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0272 | 18.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1604 | 32.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9859 | 1,418.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0316 | -7.24*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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