S&P GSCI Cocoa Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
69.46%
decreased by 1.35%
1 Week
69.26%
decreased by 1.55%
1 Month
68.46%
decreased by 2.35%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 189 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 56% more than negative returns
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0078 | 9.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0803 | 30.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9963 | 2,548.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0176 | 8.66*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
189 days
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