S&P GSCI Copper Spot Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
16.39%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
16.62%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
17.49%
increased by 0.77%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 52-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0146 | 4.73*** |
| αARCH | 0.1097 | 7.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9868 | 332.60*** |
| γleverage | -0.0132 | -1.07 |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0146 | 4.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1097 | 7.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9868 | 332.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0132 | -1.07 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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