S&P GSCI Nickel Spot Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
20.55%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Week
20.91%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Month
22.32%
increased by 1.22%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1993 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 32% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0241 | 17.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1130 | 22.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9870 | 1,232.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0157 | 4.48*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
53 days
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