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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

20.18%

increased by 0.38%

1 Week

20.18%

increased by 0.38%

1 Month

20.16%

increased by 0.36%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 1995 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 45-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0070
4.63***
αARCH0.1259
10.92***
βGARCH0.9847
311.41***
γleverage0.0032
0.32

0.985

Persistence

45d

Half-life
σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0070
4.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1259
10.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9847
311.41***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0032
0.32

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

45 days