S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
20.18%
increased by 0.38%
1 Week
20.18%
increased by 0.38%
1 Month
20.16%
increased by 0.36%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 1995 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 45-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0070 | 4.63*** |
| αARCH | 0.1259 | 10.92*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9847 | 311.41*** |
| γleverage | 0.0032 | 0.32 |
0.985
Persistence45d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0070 | 4.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1259 | 10.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9847 | 311.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0032 | 0.32 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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