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V-Lab

COMEX Gold EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

25.42%

increased by 1.21%

1 Week

25.32%

increased by 1.11%

1 Month

24.94%

increased by 0.73%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 04:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of COMEX Gold EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 46% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0072
8.41***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1017
14.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9880
991.94***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0189
3.36***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

57 days