V-Lab
COMEX Gold EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
25.42%
increased by 1.21%
1 Week
25.32%
increased by 1.11%
1 Month
24.94%
increased by 0.73%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 04:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 46% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0072 | 8.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1017 | 14.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9880 | 991.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0189 | 3.36*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
57 days
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