V-Lab
RBOB Gasoline EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
50.92%
increased by 0.16%
1 Week
50.75%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
50.17%
decreased by 0.59%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2000 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0635 | 3.66*** |
| αARCH | 0.2114 | 6.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9712 | 110.71*** |
| γleverage | -0.0108 | -0.47 |
0.971
Persistence24d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0635 | 3.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2114 | 6.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9712 | 110.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0108 | -0.47 |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
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