RBOB Gasoline GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
37.89%
decreased by 1.81%
1 Week
38.36%
decreased by 1.34%
1 Month
39.85%
increased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 23-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2397 | 4.62*** |
| αARCH | 0.1007 | 3.35*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8661 | 44.30*** |
| γleverage | 0.0077 | 0.22 |
0.971
Persistence23d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2397 | 4.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1007 | 3.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8661 | 44.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0077 | 0.22 |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
Other RBOB Gasoline Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Commodities