RBOB Gasoline GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
44.71%
decreased by 2.56%
1 Week
44.75%
decreased by 2.52%
1 Month
44.87%
decreased by 2.40%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2421 | 18.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1019 | 13.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8642 | 174.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0085 | 0.98 |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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