V-Lab
RBOB Gasoline GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
42.95%
decreased by 2.34%
1 Week
43.09%
decreased by 2.20%
1 Month
43.57%
decreased by 1.72%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 23-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2400 | 4.62*** |
| αARCH | 0.1010 | 3.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8659 | 44.27*** |
| γleverage | 0.0077 | 0.22 |
0.971
Persistence23d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2400 | 4.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1010 | 3.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8659 | 44.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0077 | 0.22 |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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