V-Lab
RBOB Gasoline GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
38.06%
increased by 1.64%
1 Week
38.52%
increased by 2.10%
1 Month
39.99%
increased by 3.57%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2429 | 4.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1013 | 3.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8642 | 43.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0093 | 0.27 |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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